The US dollar index showed a relatively strong trend recently, while SHFE tin prices fluctuated downward slightly [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on September 4, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract fluctuated downward. The contract opened at 272,830 yuan/mt, down 280 points from the previous day's settlement price. It briefly rebounded to around 274,100 yuan/mt but lacked upward momentum, generally hovering near the 273,000 yuan/mt level. Market trading sentiment became more cautious, with both trading volume and open interest decreasing.

From a macro perspective, bullish and bearish factors intertwined, leading to a more cautious market sentiment. The continued weakness in the US labour market reinforced expectations of an interest rate cut, with July JOLTS job openings falling to 7.181 million, significantly lower than the expected 7.378 million, indicating a clear cooling trend in the labour market. However, the approaching non-farm payrolls data prompted cautious observation, and risk appetite in the market cooled. The recent strength in the US dollar index put pressure on commodities priced in dollars. The market is closely watching the upcoming release of the US August non-farm payrolls data and the US Fed's interest rate meeting later this month for more clues on interest rate policy. Federal funds futures showed an increased probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in September, which to some extent limited the downside room for tin prices.

Looking ahead to the afternoon session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain a rangebound fluctuation pattern, with the volatility range further narrowing. The short-term resistance is located near 274,000 yuan/mt, while the key support level is seen at 271,500 yuan/mt.